Informality in the time of COVID-19 in Latin America: Implications and policy options.

This paper analyzes the dynamics of the labor market in Latin America during the COVID-19 pandemic. After a decade of a virtuous circle of growth with the creation of formal jobs, the pandemic has had an considerable impact on the region's labor market, generating an unparalleled increase in the proportion of the inactive population, considerable reductions in informality, and, in contrast, smaller fluctuations in formal jobs. In this context, the formal sector, given its lower flexibility, became a "social safety net" that preserved the stability of employment and wages. Based on the findings presented in this paper, it is projected that, starting in 2021, informality will grow to levels higher than those of the pre-COVID-19 era-with 7.56 million additional informal jobs-as a result of the population returning to the labor market to compensate for the declines in incomes. According to the simulations presented, postponing or forgiving income tax payments and social security contributions conditional on the generation of formal jobs could reduce the growth of informality by 50 to 75 percent. Achieving educational improvements has the potential to reduce it by 50 percent.

COVID-19 and the value of safe transport in the United States.

We investigate the connection between the choice of transportation mode used by commuters and the probability of COVID-19 transmission. This interplay might influence the choice of transportation means for years to come. We present data on commuting, socioeconomic factors, and COVID-19 disease incidence for several US metropolitan areas. The data highlights important connections between population density and mobility, public transportation use, race, and increased likelihood of transmission. We use a transportation model to highlight the effect of uncertainty about transmission on the commuters' choice of transportation means. Using multiple estimation techniques, we found strong evidence that public transit ridership in several US metro areas has been considerably impacted by COVID-19 and by the policy responses to the pandemic. Concerns about disease transmission had a negative effect on ridership, which is over and above the adverse effect from the observed reduction in employment. The COVID-19 effect is likely to reduce the demand for public transport in favor of lower density alternatives. This change relative to the status quo will have implications for fuel use, congestion, accident frequency, and air quality. More vulnerable communities might be disproportionally affected as a result. We point to the need for additional studies to further quantify these effects and to assist policy in planning for the post-COVID-19 transportation future.

Business disruptions from social distancing.

Social distancing interventions can be effective against epidemics but are potentially detrimental for the economy. Businesses that rely heavily on face-to-face communication or close physical proximity when producing a product or providing a service are particularly vulnerable. There is, however, no systematic evidence about the role of human interactions across different lines of business and about which will be the most limited by social distancing. Here we provide theory-based measures of the reliance of U.S. businesses on human interaction, detailed by industry and geographic location. We find that, before the pandemic hit, 43 million workers worked in occupations that rely heavily on face-to-face communication or require close physical proximity to other workers. Many of these workers lost their jobs since. Consistently with our model, employment losses have been largest in sectors that rely heavily on customer contact and where these contacts dropped the most: retail, hotels and restaurants, arts and entertainment and schools. Our results can help quantify the economic costs of social distancing.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Employment of Canadian Young Adults With Rheumatic Disease: Findings From a Longitudinal Survey.

OBJECTIVE: The COVID-19 pandemic has had considerable economic repercussions for young workers. The current study was undertaken to examine the impact of the pandemic on the employment of young adults with rheumatic disease and on perceptions of work and health. METHODS: Surveys were administered to young adults with rheumatic disease prior to and following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Surveys asked about employment status and collected information on sociodemographic, disease/health, and work-context factors. Items also asked about the perceived impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on work and health. A generalized estimating equation model was fitted to examine the effect of the pandemic on employment. RESULTS: In total, 133 young adults completed the pre-COVID-19 pandemic survey (mean age 28.9 years, 82% women). When compared to the pre-COVID-19 pandemic period, employment decreased from 86% to 71% following the pandemic, but no other changes were identified in sociodemographic, disease/health, or work-context factors. The time period following the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a 72% lower odds of employment compared to the pre-pandemic period (odds ratio 0.28 [95% confidence interval 0.11-0.71]). Those with a postsecondary education or who reported more mental job demands were more likely to be employed following the onset of the pandemic. Also, a majority of participants reported that the pandemic affected health care (83%), treatment access (54%), working conditions (92%), and occupational health and safety (74%). CONCLUSION: The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic had socioeconomic implications for young people with rheumatic disease. To support economic recovery for individuals with rheumatic disease, strategies to promote employment should be designed that account for the young adult life phase and occupational characteristics.

Sleep during COVID-19 lockdown: A cross-cultural study investigating job system relevance.

Our study aimed to assess the change in the sleep patterns during the Coronavirus lockdown in five regions (Austria/Germany, Ukraine, Greece, Cuba and Brazil), using online surveys, translated in each language. Part of the cohort (age 25-65, well-educated) was collected directly during lockdown, to which retrospective cross-sectional data from and after lockdown (retrospective) questionnaires were added. We investigated sleep times and sleep quality changes from before to during lockdown and found that, during lockdown, participants had (i) worse perceived sleep quality if worried by COVID-19, (ii) a shift of bedtimes to later hours during workdays, and (iii) a sleep loss on free days (resulting from more overall sleep during workdays in non-system relevant jobs), leading to (iv) a marked reduction of social jetlag across all cultures. For further analyses we directly compared system relevant and system irrelevant jobs, because it was assumed that the nature of the lockdown's consequences is dependent upon system relevance. System relevant jobs were found to have earlier wake-up times as well as shorter total sleep times on workdays, leading to higher social jetlag for people in system relevant jobs. Cultural differences revealed a general effect that participants from Greece and Ukraine had later bedtimes (on both work and free days) and wake-up times (on workdays) than Cuba, Brazil and Austria, irrespective of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions.

Falling living standards during the COVID-19 crisis: Quantitative evidence from nine developing countries.

Despite numerous journalistic accounts, systematic quantitative evidence on economic conditions during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic remains scarce for most low- and middle-income countries, partly due to limitations of official economic statistics in environments with large informal sectors and subsistence agriculture. We assemble evidence from over 30,000 respondents in 16 original household surveys from nine countries in Africa (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda, Sierra Leone), Asia (Bangladesh, Nepal, Philippines), and Latin America (Colombia). We document declines in employment and income in all settings beginning March 2020. The share of households experiencing an income drop ranges from 8 to 87% (median, 68%). Household coping strategies and government assistance were insufficient to sustain precrisis living standards, resulting in widespread food insecurity and dire economic conditions even 3 months into the crisis. We discuss promising policy responses and speculate about the risk of persistent adverse effects, especially among children and other vulnerable groups.

Superposition of COVID-19 waves, anticipating a sustained wave, and lessons for the future.

The 2019 coronavirus (COVID-19), also known as SARS-CoV-2, is highly pathogenic and virulent, and it spreads very quickly through human-to-human contact. In response to the growing number of cases, governments across the spectrum of affected countries have adopted different strategies in implementing control measures, in a hope to reduce the number of new cases. However, 5 months after the first confirmed case, countries like the United States of America (US) seems to be heading towards a trajectory that indicates a health care crisis. This is in stark contrast to the downward trajectory in Europe, China, and elsewhere in Asia, where the number of new cases has seen a decline ahead of an anticipated second wave. A data-driven approach reveals three key strategies in tackling COVID-19. Our work here has definitively evaluated these strategies and serves as a warning to the US, and more importantly, a guide for tackling future pandemics. Also see the video abstract here https://youtu.be/gPkCi2_7tWo.

Initial changes in neuropsychologists clinical practice during the COVID-19 pandemic: A survey study.

Objective: In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, a majority of clinicians have had to quickly and dramatically alter their clinical practices. Two surveys were administered on 3/26/2020 and 3/30/2020, respectively, to document immediate changes and challenges in clinical practice.Method: Two surveys were administered between 3/26/2020 and 3/30/2020, via SurveyMonkey and Google Forms, asking clinicians questions pertaining to practice issues during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. Quantitative responses from the second survey were stratified by clinical setting (Medical Hospital vs. Private Practice) prior to analysis. Qualitative, free-response items were coded by the authors to better understand immediate changes in practice and other concerns.Results: 266 neuropsychologists completed Survey 1 and 230 completed Survey 2. Results suggest that practices immediately moved towards remote service provision. A meaningful proportion of clinicians and their staff were immediately affected economically by the pandemic, with clinicians in private practice differentially affected. Furthermore, a small but significant minority of respondents faced ethical dilemmas related to service provision and expressed concerns with initial communication from their employment organizations. Respondents requested clear best-practice guidelines from neuropsychological practice organizations.Conclusions: It is clear that field of neuropsychology has drastically shifted clinical practices in response to COVID-19 and is likely to continue to evolve. While these responses were collected in the early stages of stay-at-home orders, policy changes continue to occur and it is paramount that practice organizations consider the initial challenges expressed by clinicians when formulating practice recommendations and evaluating the clinical utility of telehealth services.